Save the date: Litigation investing online event

After successfully launching the Weird Shit Investing conference as a real-life gathering, I'm now testing whether there's demand for focused, virtual events – each exploring one "weird" niche in real depth.

The pilot event on 25 February 2026 will focus on one of the most fascinating and overlooked corners of the market: litigation investing.

Enter "Weird Shit Investing (Special Edition): Opportunities in Litigation Investing".

Why ligitation investing deserves a closer look

Earlier this year, I made a conscious decision to give away one of my best investment ideas – for free!

Many paying Undervalued-Shares.com Members asked why I didn't put my article about Panthera Resources (ISIN GB00BD2B4L05, UK:PAT) – a company pursuing a ten-digit legal claim – behind a paywall. Fair point – it was one of the smartest investment ideas I've published in recent years.

But I wanted to achieve something bigger: to establish Undervalued-Shares.com as a widely known resource for litigation plays. That's why I followed up with a long piece, "10 litigation finance cases from around the world".

Litigation investing isn't new, but it's starting to gain traction among small-cap sleuths. A few milestone cases have helped – like the now (in)famous case of a litigation finance firm that spent USD 15m to buy a legal claim against Argentina and was awarded USD 16bn. Even allowing for USD 100m in legal costs, that represents one of the most outstanding investment cases of recent history (even if collecting the award remains an ongoing project with another setback earlier this week).

Litigation claims are complex, and they come with unexpected twists and turns – but they also have a degree of predictability, being rooted in established legal frameworks. And sometimes, along the way, they develop additional upside.

Case in point: Panthera Resources

Panthera Resources is a model case for how litigation investing can play out. The London-listed company, with a market cap of GBP 57m (USD 75m) based on a fully diluted capital of 260m shares and a share price 22 pence, has filed an arbitration claim against the government of India for the allegedly unlawful expropriation of its Bhukia gold project. The claim seeks USD 1.58bn post-tax in compensation.

What wasn't clear until recently was the timeline – and that lack of clarity caused the share price to drop by one-third after the company filed its much-anticipated statement of claim (SoC) in May 2025.

Panthera Resources.

That uncertainty is now gone.

The arbitration panel rejected India's request to bifurcate the case on jurisdictional grounds, meaning the process can now proceed faster.

The panel's chairman is known for keeping cases on track – and the published schedule for Phase 1 (as announced by Panthera Resources on 29 October 2025) confirms the swift pace:

Within 15 months, the core arguments (including the question of overall merit and the general principles of compensation) will have been exchanged between the parties. A decision could be expected around mid-2027, followed by a very short Phase 2 to calculate the compensation, and payment enforcement potentially within 12-24 months.

A final decision on the award is now possible by the end of 2027, i.e. at the shorter end of the original three-to-five-year guidance.

What it means for investors

Having this clear timetable allows investors to model realistic outcomes (I already outlined as much in an article about Panthera Resources in the Weird Shit Investing Manual 2025, see page 155).

Reasonable assumptions include:

• Panthera Resources wins its USD 1.58bn post-tax claim.
• After taxes and payments to its litigation financier, shareholders stand to get GBP 395 pence per share – roughly a 20x return over four years, or over 100% p.a.
• A GBP 5,000 investment today could theoretically become GBP 100,000 by late 2029.

More importantly, markets tend to re-rate legal claims as cases progress. Typically, a claim at this stage would trade at 5-10% of its potential value. Panthera Resources is currently valued at less than 5% of the post-tax claim, and remains cheap relative to its potential return over the coming 48 months. 2026 is shaping up to be a busy year for the company, and considerable news flow can be expected.

And there's an added twist, as the USD 1.58bn post-tax claim could eventually come out higher – a possibility that even most existing shareholders won't be aware of yet. The claim appears to be indexed to the gold price, with the original calculation based on a price of USD 3,000 per ounce. Importantly, the claim in Phase 2 will be determined using the prevailing gold price at that time. Gold, however, has recently traded much higher, which, according to a simple calculation by a larger, long-term Panthera Resources investor could lift the post-tax claim toward USD 3bn. Based on such a calculation, Panthera Resources stock currently trades at less than 2.5% of the claim's value.

Source: Mark Thompson (via X).

This kind of opacity and complexity is exactly where opportunities emerge. Few investors fully understand how these legal mechanics translate into value – and that misunderstanding often creates mispricing. Given that Panthera Resources stock already traded at 37 pence in 2021 (when the legal claim was in its earliest phase), it's unlikely it will remain available below 25 pence for much longer.

Panthera Resources.

Beyond Panthera Resources: a growing asset class

Panthera Resources is only one of many cases worldwide. Every year, more than a handful of listed companies find themselves embroiled in legal cases with potentially highly attractive return profiles.

Undervalued-Shares.com Members have already received extensive research on two of the world's leading litigation financiers, as an indirect way to play such opportunities.

This is still a niche – but one with potential to find real outlier investment cases. Occasionally, a new asset class emerges. My goal is for Undervalued-Shares.com to play a part in turning litigation plays into a recognised asset class.

Introducing the litigation investing online event

That's the idea behind "Weird Shit Investing (Special Edition): Litigation Investing", a full-day online event on 25 February 2026.

The conference will bring together:

• Online authors and publications who cover litigation plays, such as Marcin Michalek, TripleS Special Situations Investing, and the recently launched Case Research.
• Legal experts and some niche fund managers.

Attendees will be able to:

• Engage with speakers through questions and debate.
• Learn about the event's findings sooner than everyone else.
• Expand their network among like-minded investors.

After the event, a comprehensive summary will be shared with all Undervalued-Shares.com Members – an evergreen compendium for anyone researching publicly listed litigation cases.

How to join

If this sounds up your alley, mark 25 February 2026 in your diary. The online event will run for a full day during London business hours, with video access available afterwards.

Participation will be affordable, and I'd welcome your suggestions for speakers and companies. Feel free to get in touch – this first Special Edition should be both fascinating and fun!

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