My best investment ideas
My in-depth reports, which always cover ONE specific investment in great detail, are the heart and core of this website. They mostly cover very liquid shares that most anyone can purchase on major stock exchanges around the world, and occasionally cover a small cap company or an alternative investment. Once I have covered a company in an extensive report, I regularly report about it in an e-letter that only goes out to paying Members and provides updates about past reports. Please read the disclaimer of my website. I do not provide investment advice and readers need to make their own decisions.
Poland's new "Golden Age" for investors
24 July 2020
Tim Draper, the Silicon Valley billionaire investor and trendspotter, is expecting a new "Golden Age" for Eastern Europe – and Poland, in particular.
Indeed, the country has achieved a lot:
- 27 consecutive years of economic growth, averaging 4.2% p.a. from 1992 to 2019. Per capita incomes are up by a factor of three and consumer businesses are booming.
- During this period, Poland has grown faster than:
- All other former Eastern Bloc countries.
- All other large countries in the world with a similar level of income.
- Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea.
- Other historical economic achievements include:
- Europe's longest recorded growth spurt ever.
- One of the most extended growth periods recorded in world history.
- Second fastest ever rise from poverty to high-income (behind South Korea).
Poland has achieved all this without relying on excessive debt. In 2018, it was the first country of the former Eastern Bloc to become a "developed country". It's now the sixth largest economy of the EU, ahead of Sweden.
Which investments should private investors focus on? I have found ONE stock that could be the ideal proxy for covering the entire Polish market and economy.
26 June 2020
5 reasons to invest in the world's largest carmaker – summed up in a 51-page report.
My latest report about the two intertwined companies builds on the report that I published in January 2019.
Back then, I explained how the Porsche/Piëch families control Volkswagen through their publicly-listed family investment vehicle, Porsche SE.
The report summarised Volkswagen's challenges and opportunities, and what it meant for retail investors who were fetching a ride on the coat-tail of the families by buying into Porsche SE.
Even my German readers commented how much they had learned from the initial report, and how interesting the unusual background story was.
17 months on, it is time for a follow-up with a standalone report.
Secular growth opportunity in tech
22 May 2020
Don't we all wish we could travel back in time and load up on shares of Apple, Amazon, Google, and Netflix?
You now have the opportunity to do just that.
In the US, there is one particular sector of the tech industry that has made investors between 100 to 1,300 (!) times their money since the early 2000s. This sector came out of nowhere and is worth USD 200bn today. Three companies dominate the space, and their shareholders have been minting money.
Elsewhere in the world, the growth of this particular industry is about ten years behind the US – but catching up fast.
There is ONE publicly listed company that allows you to catch this opportunity early on. Its home market is undergoing the same developments that the US has already gone through. This opportunity is – for all intents and purposes – almost as good as travelling back in time.
Like Amazon stock in 1997?
22 April 2020
The technology sector offers some of the best opportunities for catching one of the elusive "100-baggers". If a company manages to grow by 25% p.a. for 15 years, it will have multiplied by a factor of 28 by the end of that period. Throw in some economies of scale, and you may get that 100-bagger that everyone is hoping to find for their portfolio.
Today's featured company is a candidate for achieving such growth throughout the 2020s.
It's an online company that is already world-leading in its market. You could even say that it has created its own market by approaching a problem in a different way than everyone else. It could be a category-defining company.
Its target market generates USD 5tr per year, but only a tiny fraction of that has already shifted online.
If my instinct is right, this is a ground floor opportunity similar to investing in Amazon 20 years ago.
Gazprom: more than ever a long-term buy?
27 March 2020
The stock of Gazprom rose 128% after my December 2018 report, but has since lost most of its gains due to the double-whammy of the coronavirus crisis and oil price crash.
Is now a second opportunity to get onboard at fire-sale prices?
This report provides you with a very different perspective to the one shared by conventional investment media. It spells out the "10 reasons to be invested in Gazprom for the next 10 years".
Short term, the company probably offers a double-digit (!) dividend yield.
Long term, it's one of the most compelling corporate restructuring stories you can find on the world's stock exchanges. If Putin plays his cards right (as he has done recently), Gazprom shareholders could earn hundreds of billions of dollars between now and 2030. If you missed the FAANG stocks in the 2010s, you might want to consider owning Gazprom for the 2020s.
This report is both an update to the December 2018 report and a standalone piece that you can read without prior knowledge of the company.
Bonus Report: Cuba – how to profit from distressed debt
6 February 2020
Have you ever come across the idea of investing in defaulted sovereign debt?
André Kostolany, the late German stock market guru and bestselling book author, landed his two biggest investment coups by buying defaulted bonds:
- With defaulted German bonds from 1930, he made 139 times his money.
- Russia's pre-1917 czarist bonds made him 100 times his investment.
Cuba has outstanding defaulted debt, which has long been the subject of ongoing speculation. It is currently "out", but new developments could soon lead to Cuba's defaulted debt being "in" again.
Defaulted Cuban debt is a rare and exotic asset, but it's open to investment.
In my new 56-page report, you can learn about investing in defaulted bonds in general, as well as the specific opportunity of defaulted Cuban debt.
How to earn "monopoly rent" from Heathrow Airport
17 January 2020
British Airways controls the majority of so-called "landing slots" at Heathrow Airport. The peculiar, little-known ownership rights can be akin to a money printing machine.
Britain's former flagship carrier is not itself listed on the stock market, but you can indirectly buy into British Airways by investing in International Airlines Group (IAG, ISIN ES0177542018). IAG is a holding company that owns 100% of British Airways. It also owns Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling, and Level – making it Europe's third largest airline company.
Based on my analysis, IAG could be a share to buy and tuck away for the next ten years. Across the next decade, it could generate an average 12% to 15% p.a. for its shareholders, even if there was a recession along the way. That would be anything but a bad return from a company that has been in business for a century, and the stock of which is a highly liquid blue chip (GBP 12bn / EUR 15bn market cap).
In my view, IAG stock is one for the retirement portfolio. I am so bullish about it, that I made the effort to research and write one of the most complex research reports of my past 25 years of writing.
"Buy American" – an ultra-contrarian investment for short and long-term gains
20 December 2019
I try very hard to feature stocks where I am a lone voice in the desert. The less aligned with the consensus my views are, the better! Provided, of course, that I have uncovered the facts and figures that justify taking such a non-consensus position.
If you asked investors about the company that I have featured in my latest 47-page report, you'd probably get the following consensus view:
- It operates in an industry that is primarily famous for frequent bankruptcies.
- Brutal competition and price-conscious customers have killed its profit margins.
- The investor community is going to forever shun the entire sector.
However, my non-consensus evaluation of the company is quite different:
- The industry has morphed into an oligopoly with benign competition.
- Two of the world's best value investors have already bought up 25% of the company. One has recently been buying more, and the other one has publicly stated that he might end up bidding for the entire company.
- Starting in early 2020, there are concrete catalysts for the stock price to move higher.
Warren Buffett has already ploughed billions into this opportunity. But there is a lot more to it than just Buffett's interest.
This is a report that will surprise you with many of its findings.
A clever niche opportunity among mutual funds
29 November 2019
Undervalued-Shares.com has uncovered a highly unusual special situation among Germany-based mutual funds.
The fund in question owns one unlisted investment, which could soon be listed on a stock exchange. The conservatively managed and highly rated fund has been accounting for this stake based on its October 2018 historical purchase price. Were this portfolio company to be IPO'ed, the fund would likely experience an "overnight" net asset value increase of 7%; and maybe even more.
Virtually all pieces of this puzzle are already in the public domain. However, no one has made an effort yet to put two and two together.
It's a conservative investment, i.e., it won't double overnight. But it is one that could appeal to those of my readers who would like to "stash away" some money.
This fund could, in retrospective, turn out to be the equivalent of "free money".
All is exclusively revealed and explained in this Members-only, 20-page report by Undervalued-Shares.com.
Italian banks – A Renaissance (for some)
1 November 2019
Greece used to be the poster child of Europe's banking crisis. However, it has recently become the poster child for fulminant returns. Stocks of leading Greek banks are up massively since January 2019:
- Piraeus Bank: +300%.
- National Bank of Greece: +190%.
- Eurobank Ergasis: +90%.
- Alpha Bank: +68%.
- Attica Bank: +300%.
These aren't small-cap companies, but some of the largest banks of the country.
The entire Greek stock market has had the best performance in over 20 years. Few investors saw this coming. They underestimated the tinderbox reaction that happens when stock valuations are at rock-bottom and news about a gradual turnaround start to come in. For Greece bank stocks, going from "terrible" to "okay" was enough to spark a major rally.
If you missed out on Greece, then you might get a second chance with Italy. One Italian bank, in particular, sticks out as an attractive value play with clear catalysts on the horizon.
Just like the Greek banks, the dynamics currently at work in Italy's banking sector are not yet widely understood or noticed. My report looks at these misconceptions, and it draws a few surprising conclusions.
100 times your money?
7 October 2019
Once a year, this website features a company that has the potential to deliver a 100-fold return over a five to ten-year period.
Sounds incredible? There are actually timeless rules and guidelines for spotting such outliers early on, and scientific studies provide further analysis of them. Following these well-established rules is much more likely to yield outstanding long-term results than buying into highly speculative stocks and hoping to hit the jackpot overnight. It's not easy, but if you aren't systematic about trying you'll certainly never get there.
My report about this year's candidate also explains how to train yourself to spot such opportunities. It delves deeper into the subject of finding the kind of outlier company that can turn EUR/USD 10,000 into EUR/USD 1,000,000 over a realistic timeframe.
Most importantly, the 22-page report features a company that is listed on a major European exchange. This company's stock has a lot of potential in any case, and it might just turn out to become a potential '100-bagger'.
I thought long and hard about the first such candidate to introduce, and this report is the result. Of course, it's for Members only!
26 September 2019
Have you ever been to Covent Garden in London? This major tourist attraction is actually available for investment. The famous "Market Hall" and 78 surrounding properties are owned by a (little-known) publicly listed company.
Because of several recent developments (Brexit being just one of them), the stock price has fallen 50%. The company's management is currently working on implementing several steps aimed at turning around the stock's performance. News about this is due out soon.
The company in question could fall prey to a bid. It could also turn out to be a low-risk, high-quality value investment for those who are seeking long-term capital growth. My 24-page report discusses who should look at this investment and why.
British Takeover Target
13 August 2019
This world-leading company (top 3 globally) is virtually sure to get into the crosshairs of a takeover bid sometime during the next 12 months, possibly a lot earlier.
Its industry has high barriers of entry; it is projected to grow organically at nearly twice the speed of global GDP growth, and it offers a rare opportunity to consolidate a highly fragmented sector from the ground up. Large private equity companies are known to be interested in this space, but there is a real lack of suitable targets - except this particular company!
Based on an estimate of its cash flow and a comparison with other recent transactions in this industry, the stock could attract a bid at a price that is 75% higher than the stock price at the time of publication.
Bonus Report: Société des Bains de Mer de Monaco (SBM)
2 August 2019
Is this the world's most glamourous publicly listed company? Paris-listed SBM owns much of Monte Carlo's most valuable real estate, including the Hôtel de Paris, the Café de Paris, and the uber-luxurious One Monte Carlo residential development.
Established in 1863, the company is majority-owned by the ruling monarch of the Principality of Monaco, Prince Albert II and his family.
The 76-page report is the sequel to my seminal 2004 analysis of the company. At the time, SBM was trading at the value of its cash reserves and the entire debt-free real estate was effectively for free. The share shot up 228%, but then stagnated again for a decade.
Recently, SBM shares once again gathered steam. Is it time to buy again?
Bonus Report: The Coming End of Gazprom's Pipeline Export Monopoly?
23 May 2019
Vladimir Putin enjoys making unexpected moves, and one such upcoming move could be the end of Gazprom's monopoly right to export gas in a gaseous state through pipelines.
Gazprom did already surprise the market recently, by announcing a doubling of its dividend payment for 2018. This led to the share price making a bigger one-day leap than on any other day during the past decade. Also, it catapulted the dividend yield for my readers to a staggering 13% p.a.
Are more surprises coming the way of Gazprom shareholders?
This bonus report, which adds to my 91-page research piece issued on 28 December 2018, takes an initial look at the currently available evidence.
European Technology Takeover Target
26 April 2019
Occasionally, this website will steer away from its habit of focussing on long-term investments, and introduce an investment with a short-term horizon.
E.g., back in November 2018, I wrote about a luxury hotel operator that I believed was going to receive a much higher takeover bid than the market anticipated at the time. Just two weeks later, this bid came in and my readers were able to pocket a quick 34% profit.
Bid situations are an exciting area, but timing and valuations are critical:
- You don't want to buy into a company where it subsequently takes years and years before anyone makes a bid.
- You'll need to be pretty sure that as and when a bid is made, it offers a sufficiently high upside compared to the price you paid.
- Last but certainly not least, you'll want good fundamentals to ensure you don't face a huge downside in case the anticipated bid doesn't happen for whatever reason.
With this 30-page research report, I am confident there is a new, attractive case for placing a bet on a coming takeover bid with ample upside, a reasonably clear time horizon, and limited downside.
Israel Gas Report
2 April 2019
Israel was long joked about as the ONLY place in the Middle East that didn't have any oil or gas. This changed in 2009/10 when one of the world's largest ever gas fields (and multiple smaller ones) were discovered in the depth of the Eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Israel.
Several publicly listed companies were involved in the discoveries, and the subsequent hype led to some of their shareholders temporarily making up to ten times their money.
However, the discoveries didn't lead to the quick ramping-up of Israeli gas production that the market had hoped for. Politics caused a six-year delay because Israel was struggling with how to handle such a mega-resource. Share prices faltered again.
This 104-page report looks in detail at the one company that is likely to emerge as the big winner of all of these developments, and it provides extensive background about the industry and the current changes in the region.
This share is currently on hardly anyone's radar screen, but it's already clear why this is virtually certain to change in 2019 and 2020.
28 January 2019
In 2008, car-maker Porsche attempted a hostile take-over of Volkswagen – a company with 50 times its own car output! The audacious transaction ended in financial disaster. The Porsche-Piëch family needed a financial bail-out and lost ownership of its car brand.
To this day, the Porsche-Piëch clan controls a 52.2% voting stake in Volkswagen. However, Volkswagen shares are currently trading at a depressingly cheap valuation.
What is the world’s most influential automobile family going to do to turn around the family fortune? Does the family need to become more assertive again, or is Volkswagen’s new management already doing all the right moves to get Volkswagen shares moving again?
Porsche SE is the publicly listed holding company of the Porsche-Piëch family. This 72-page report gives you all the Ins and Outs of an opportunity that is unlike any other among publicly-quoted automobile companies.
28 December 2018
Once celebrated by Western media as likely to become the world's first Trillion Dollar company, Gazprom fell out of favor and has seen its market value plunge from $367bn in 2008 to now $50bn.
Few companies are as polarizing as Gazprom.
This report is looking at a range of lesser-known changes that the company has recently undergone. Its main thesis is that Putin's self-interest is tipping from utilizing Gazprom as a political tool to turning the government's 51% stake into a valuable financial asset. He will work to re-establish Gazprom on international equity markets, aiming to create an additional >$1Tr in Gazprom shareholder value.
If this report’s controversial thesis is proven right, the share price is likely to rise by a factor of 5 during the next few years; and possibly by a factor of 20 in the long-run.