My best investment ideas

My in-depth research reports contain my best investment ideas every year (10 for Annual Members plus an additional 4 for Lifetime Members). They always cover ONE specific investment in great detail - mostly liquid shares that you can purchase on major stock exchanges, and occasionally a small cap company or an alternative investment. Check out my FREE sample report (PDF - 6MB) as an example. Please note, I do not provide investment advice and readers need to make their own decisions (see my disclaimer for details).

Bayer AG: similar to buying Volkswagen two years ago?

Bayer AG: a German blue chip with 100% upside

10 September 2021

It is tremendously valuable to have a few decades of real-life experience to lean on.

Among other things, it helps you put things in perspective. You find it easier to keep a cool head when everyone else is panicking.

Case in point, the hysteria surrounding Bayer's "Roundup" trials in the US.

Admittedly, it's an awful mess: 

  • Many victims and human misery.
  • EUR 23bn in one-off charges in 2020 alone.
  • EUR 74bn of shareholder value destroyed.

However, I believe: "This, too, shall pass."

Following my analysis, I expect Bayer to experience a similar recovery as the one it staged from 2003 onwards. Back then, the German life science company experienced a similar scandal – but its stock subsequently rose by a factor of 7. 

Will Bayer manage to stage a turnaround yet again? 

This report believes it can, and will. Starting in 2022, and possibly as early as Q4/21.

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A groundfloor opportunity in gaming and esports

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Game on: a European entertainment champion goes global

12 August 2021

Europe isn't exactly famous for producing global tech and entertainment champions. However, they do exist and that's where the opportunity lies.

Find a cheap European company that has world-leading products, give it some more capital to develop a global growth strategy, and list its stock on a major stock exchange such as London – or sell the entire company!

That's exactly the scenario I expect for my latest find. Smart money has started to move in on this company, yet I bet you have never heard of it:

One of the most successful media executives from the US has recently acquired a 5% stake.

One of the most successful (and secretive) European activist funds has taken a stake of nearly 10%.

This company has been lying dormant, but that won't be the case for much longer. In early December 2021, it should get a lot of attention.

Right now, the stock is trading at just a sliver more than the price paid by the American media executive. If things work out, it could trade 125% higher by mid-2022.


Novavax: The

Novavax: The vax company that came from nowhere

30 July 2021

I recently wondered which coronavirus vaccine I would pick for myself - if or when I get vaccinated.

When I asked a trusted medical doctor for his advice about coronavirus vaccinations, he mentioned an option that I hadn't thought of yet: "If you aren't in a risk group and can wait, then wait for Novavax to hit the market in autumn 2021."

"Novavax" is both a vaccine and a company. The broader public isn't aware of it yet, but there are some metrics about the company that should make you pay attention:

  • Novavax received USD 2bn in public support to launch its vaccine, more than any other American vaccine company.
  • Countries around the world have already ordered 1.4 BILLION Novavax doses, which earlier this year made it the second-most ordered vaccine on record.
  • Those countries with pending pre-orders aren't just developing nations but include the US (110m doses), the UK (60m), and Australia (51m).

Science Magazine asked whether Novavax is going to produce the "best" coronavirus vaccine.

Would you have known about these details? If not, it's probably worth your time to read on.

Benefitting from the decline of the European middle class

13 July 2021

Historically, Europe has been the quintessential middle-class society. However, the kind of white-collar office job that long provided job security and a high income increasingly becomes the prime target of automatisation, artificial intelligence and other new technologies. 

The pandemic will only accelerate the ongoing rupture between the haves and the have-nots. Taxes will go up, which will further squeeze the budgets of hundreds of millions of people across Europe. There'll be a bifurcation of society.

Who will be among the biggest beneficiaries of these worrying trends?

I found an unlikely candidate. This company is a rags-to-riches story, and even outside of its investment angle, it makes for fascinating reading.

IWG cover

IWG plc: a stock with infinite return?

16 June 2021

How about an investment where (after some time) you need to keep zero money invested but keep the stock anyway?

If this sounds too good to be true, bear with me.

I've uncovered one company that is gearing up for a large, tax-free capital return which could give shareholders all their money back – and you will keep your share in the growing business, too.

It's a very unusual situation. IWG plc is in a growth market that can increase fivefold by the end of the decade. It's the global market leader in its industry and has been the #1 for many years. However, it's currently trading at a third (or less) of its intrinsic value.

IWG's management is already working on deals that will enable the capital return. Once you have received your initial investment back, from there onwards you'll literally have an infinite return. It's not going to happen overnight, but it should happen within a year or two – and possibly sooner.

Another exclusive!

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Pampa Energia

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Crisis investing in Argentina: follow the insiders

29 May 2021

Argentina offers some of the world's best investment bargains. Most Argentinean stocks have lost over 80% of their value since the latest economic crisis began, including the high-quality ones.

In some ways, it's similar to Russia in the late 1990s, when top-quality assets were available for a song.

Argentina insiders know that yet again, the country's latest crisis will actually make for a huge opportunity. Smart money is moving in on Argentina.

This report for Lifetime Members is about Pampa Energía, a stock that I believe is akin to no-brainer investment. Even as a deep-value play, the stock should recover 100-300% over 1-2 years. Surprisingly, it may yet become a growth stock again – possibly even a 10-bagger, longer term.

The market has completely missed this story so far, but I believe there is one reason why this will change over the coming months.

If you like buying the dollar for 10 pence, you will love this story.

Apollo Global Management cover

Apollo Global – plus 50% by mid-2022?

21 April 2021

Buying stock in Apollo Global Management is like getting 500 of the world's best investment professionals to work for you.

The US-based alternative asset manager has one of the best track records in the investment industry. 39% p.a. gross IRR since 1990, anyone?

Because its staff are so successful in managing other peoples' money, Apollo Global was able to grow its client assets from USD 0.8bn to USD 455bn since it was founded in 1990.

The company has much of its client base "locked in". An astonishing 60% of its client assets are permanent capital, which gives Apollo Global a solid foundation to stand on. In comparison, the industry leader, Blackstone, only has 22% permanent capital.

However, the shine recently wore off. During the past 6 and 24 months, the stock has massively lagged behind its peers. The share prices of Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle Group outperformed that of Apollo Global by a mile.

Will "APO" soon stage a catch-up rally?

I have investigated this possibility in detail - with some surprising findings!

Cresud cover

CRESUD S.A. - "Argentina is the gift that keeps on giving"

27 March 2021

Argentina is one of the world's most out-of-favour stock markets.

As the Wall Street Journal reported recently: "The country's total stock-market valuation has collapsed from USD 350 billion in 2018 to USD 20 billion last year."

Such a collapse is stunning, all the more so at a time of rallying global markets. Based on that one indicator alone, anyone with an interest in crisis investing would naturally take a look at Argentina.

There is now a concrete reason to do so – a potential catalyst to help the country back on its feet.

Since mid-2020, major agricultural price indices have surged by over 40%. Prices are now at their highest level since 2013, and some predict there is more to come.

One of the biggest beneficiaries? Argentina, the country that makes 70% of its export income from agricultural products.

Is now the time to pile into Argentinean assets at vastly discounted prices?

I set out to investigate.

A compounder gem for the

Reopening play

16 March 2021

Who would possibly want to invest in a cruise ship operator at this particular time?

Even worse, who would want to do so after the stock has increased six times (!) in 12 months?

The company featured in my latest research report is currently not operating any of its vessels, but its stock is trading at an all-time high.

Surely, it's madness to even consider it for an investment?

Not everything is quite as it seems at the surface. Hear me out with this story.

The company in question has just increased its total addressable market by a factor of 15. Based on 2026 projections, its target market will be 40 times bigger even compared to last year's growth prospects. It's now operating in a market projected to grow by 18% each year, which will enable the "best in class" players to grow even faster.

With a simple, logical change to its business model, it has completely transformed its future prospects.

Not that the market would have noticed yet.

This change in strategy was only just announced. I believe is first to report about it in great detail.

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THE electronic payment company from Israel

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"Secret" tech company from Israel

5 March 2021

The company featured in this bonus report for Lifetime Members has spent four decades hiding in a basement.


Five banks shared ownership of this tech company, and they didn't want to share it with the outside world. It was a monopoly, and highly profitable. The Israeli public was unaware of the existence of this company, yet everyone used its services.

In 2019, the Israeli government forced the banks to sell some of their shares and allow the company to go public. It's been listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange since. Few have noticed so far, not the least because the company's reporting only recently became available in English.

If my analysis is correct, this stock could increase in value by a factor of 2-4 over the coming 12-24 months. Longer term, it offers significantly more potential. The debt-free, cash-rich company could turn into a "compounder stock", just like Visa or Mastercard.

However, there is a catch! This stock is for experienced investors only.

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Strong junior mining candidate for a lucrative bid cover

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M&A fever among junior mining stocks

17 January 2021

Large gold mining companies are approaching the end of their minable reserves – the so-called "reserve cliff". These large corporations will increasingly use their record levels of cash to rebuild their reserves. What's the easiest way to do so quickly? Acquire junior mining companies!

A recent bidding war is indicative of what's to come.

Cardinal Resources (ISIN: AU000000CDV9) had explored and developed a 5m ounce reserve in Ghana, Africa. When a bid was made for the company, no less than THREE other bidders entered the fray. One of them was a Chinese company with state-backed funding to mop up the strategic metal around the world.

Nine months later, the Chinese emerged victorious. The biggest beneficiaries were the company's shareholders, who made between three and four times their money.

There is a lot of pent-up demand for M&A in the gold sector. It's almost certain there will be plenty of similar situations unfolding over the next one to two years.

The question is, how to find such opportunities before the market wakes up to them?

Fear not, is here to help!

Just Eat cover

Just Eat the must-own e-commerce stock for 2021?

23 December 2020

Jitse Groen is the Internet billionaire you will not have heard of before. He is the 40-something founder, CEO and major shareholder of Just Eat, the online food delivery company.

Industry insiders call him "the Jeff Bezos of online food delivery”.

Groen has a 20-year track record of taking aim at new target countries and nuking his local competition. He literally nukes them. The superior firepower of his Amsterdam-based company threatens even the DoorDashs and Uber Eats of this world.

Through his Blitzkrieg-style tactics, Groen has already managed to build the #1 online food delivery company of the Western world. Only China’s Meituan is bigger.

Groen's company is terrible, though, at telling its own story. That’s why the stock market has, so far, largely overlooked the stock.

Things are about to change, and 2021 is about to get hot.

Twitter - Limited downside and a surprisingly large upside

Twitter – the great revival story of 2021?

20 November 2020

Who can afford not to use Twitter?

It's the world's #1 real-time news engine, and provides free access to 50% to 80% of the world’s leading experts in any given field.

However, Twitter is the ugly duckling among publicly-listed social networks. It still struggles to monetise its unique content and market niche, and its stock has remained flat since 2013.

Could the company’s lull be about to end?

Elliott Management has invested USD 1bn in Twitter stock. The firm is the world’s largest activist investor, and has a successful track record in turning around flailing technology companies. 

There is plenty going on behind the scenes, which I have taken a closer look at.

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Ready for the next Fiverr?

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Ready for the next Fiverr?

20 August 2020

Undervalued tech companies with blue-sky potential aren't easy to find.

But they do exist!

My latest discovery reminds me of online marketplace Fiverr, one of THE beneficiaries of the changed world we now live in:

  • Global leader in its technology.
  • Huge addressable market.
  • Proven management team.

If the plan works out, the company in question will become a money printing machine for its shareholders. It simply has tremendous economies of scale – as tech does!

And even if the plan doesn't work out, the company's existing business should still yield investors a profit.

Limited downside, huge upside – that's the combination I like best.

The ONE Polish stock to own for the 2020s

Poland's new "Golden Age" for investors

24 July 2020

Tim Draper, the Silicon Valley billionaire investor and trendspotter, is expecting a new "Golden Age" for Eastern Europe – and Poland, in particular.

Indeed, the country has achieved a lot:

  • 27 consecutive years of economic growth, averaging 4.2% p.a. from 1992 to 2019. Per capita incomes are up by a factor of three and consumer businesses are booming.
  • During this period, Poland has grown faster than:
    • All other former Eastern Bloc countries.
    • All other large countries in the world with a similar level of income.
    • Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea.
  • Other historical economic achievements include:
    • Europe's longest recorded growth spurt ever.
    • One of the most extended growth periods recorded in world history.
    • Second fastest ever rise from poverty to high-income (behind South Korea).

Poland has achieved all this without relying on excessive debt. In 2018, it was the first country of the former Eastern Bloc to become a "developed country". It's now the sixth largest economy of the EU, ahead of Sweden.

Which investments should private investors focus on? I have found ONE stock that could be the ideal proxy for covering the entire Polish market and economy.

Volkswagen Porsche SE

Volkswagen/Porsche SE

26 June 2020

5 reasons to invest in the world's largest carmaker – summed up in a 51-page report.

My latest report about the two intertwined companies builds on the report that I published in January 2019.

Back then, I explained how the Porsche/Piëch families control Volkswagen through their publicly-listed family investment vehicle, Porsche SE.

The report summarised Volkswagen's challenges and opportunities, and what it meant for retail investors who were fetching a ride on the coat-tail of the families by buying into Porsche SE.

Even my German readers commented how much they had learned from the initial report, and how interesting the unusual background story was.

17 months on, it is time for a follow-up with a standalone report.

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A future household name across Europe?

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A new med-tech champion

31 May 2020 reveals what is almost certain to become the European champion in a technology that could truly change the world (and for the better).

The company in question is not one of these companies that are all plans and ambitions, but one that has already established itself:

  • #1 market position in Europe, and #5 globally.
  • Half a million paying customers – the famous "proof of concept".
  • Profitable business.

No one else has pulled together these details yet, even though the company might become a household name across Europe during the next few years.

There is already an exclusive circle of investors who have pooled EUR 100m (!) to amass a majority stake.

The market has simply not realised yet what's cooking – which allows you to catch this opportunity early on.

Profit from the digitisation of Africa cover

Secular growth opportunity in tech

22 May 2020

Don't we all wish we could travel back in time and load up on shares of Apple, Amazon, Google, and Netflix?

You now have the opportunity to do just that.

In the US, there is one particular sector of the tech industry that has made investors between 100 to 1,300 (!) times their money since the early 2000s. This sector came out of nowhere and is worth USD 200bn today. Three companies dominate the space, and their shareholders have been minting money.

Elsewhere in the world, the growth of this particular industry is about ten years behind the US – but catching up fast. 

There is ONE publicly listed company that allows you to catch this opportunity early on. Its home market is undergoing the same developments that the US has already gone through. This opportunity is – for all intents and purposes – almost as good as travelling back in time.

Fiverr cover

Fiverr - like Amazon stock in 1997?

22 April 2020

The technology sector offers some of the best opportunities for catching one of the elusive "100-baggers". If a company manages to grow by 25% p.a. for 15 years, it will have multiplied by a factor of 28 by the end of that period. Throw in some economies of scale, and you may get that 100-bagger that everyone is hoping to find for their portfolio.

Today's featured company, Fiverr, is a candidate for achieving such growth throughout the 2020s.

It's an online company that is already world-leading in its market. You could even say that it has created its own market by approaching a problem in a different way than everyone else. It could be a category-defining company.

Its target market generates USD 5tr per year, but only a tiny fraction of that has already shifted online. 

If my instinct is right, Fiverr is a ground-floor opportunity similar to investing in Amazon 20 years ago.

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A Lundin-style investment opportunity

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"Crisis investing", Lundin-style

7 April 2020

Who wouldn't like to turn USD 10,000 into USD 500,000 within just a year or two? 

I have hunted down a case that is not too dissimilar to what Petrel Resources was in 2003, and the timing might just be perfect.

The company in question ticks many of the right boxes:

  • Highly controversial.
  • A gigantic, but toxic asset (worth either billions or nothing at all).
  • Swashbuckling major shareholders (with a track record for making things happen).

I have been following this company for no less than 16 years, and it's undoubtedly one of the most unusual corporate situations you can find on public markets. If you wanted to bet 1% of your portfolio on a Lundin-style investment, now's the moment.

Gazprom: more than ever a long-term buy?

27 March 2020

The stock of Gazprom rose 128% after my December 2018 report, but has since lost most of its gains due to the double-whammy of the coronavirus crisis and oil price crash.

Is now a second opportunity to get onboard at fire-sale prices?

This report provides you with a very different perspective to the one shared by conventional investment media. It spells out the "10 reasons to be invested in Gazprom for the next 10 years".

Short term, the company probably offers a double-digit (!) dividend yield.

Long term, it's one of the most compelling corporate restructuring stories you can find on the world's stock exchanges. If Putin plays his cards right (as he has done recently), Gazprom shareholders could earn hundreds of billions of dollars between now and 2030. If you missed the FAANG stocks in the 2010s, you might want to consider owning Gazprom for the 2020s.

This report is both an update to my December 2018 report and a standalone piece that you can read without prior knowledge of the company.

Bonus report: Cuba – how to profit from distressed debt

6 February 2020

Have you ever come across the idea of investing in defaulted sovereign debt?

André Kostolany, the late German stock market guru and bestselling book author, landed his two biggest investment coups by buying defaulted bonds:

  • With defaulted German bonds from 1930, he made 139 times his money.
  • Russia's pre-1917 czarist bonds made him 100 times his investment.

Cuba has outstanding defaulted debt, which has long been the subject of ongoing speculation. It is currently "out", but new developments could soon lead to Cuba's defaulted debt being "in" again.

Defaulted Cuban debt is a rare and exotic asset, but it's open to investment.

In my new 56-page report, you can learn about investing in defaulted bonds in general, as well as the specific opportunity of defaulted Cuban debt.

British Airways - how to earn "monopoly rent" from Heathrow Airport

17 January 2020

British Airways controls the majority of so-called "landing slots" at Heathrow Airport. The peculiar, little-known ownership rights can be akin to a money printing machine.

Britain's former flagship carrier is not itself listed on the stock market, but you can indirectly buy into British Airways by investing in International Airlines Group (IAG, ISIN ES0177542018). IAG is a holding company that owns 100% of British Airways. It also owns Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling, and Level – making it Europe's third largest airline company. 

Based on my analysis, IAG could be a share to buy and tuck away for the next ten years. Across the next decade, it could generate an average 12% to 15% p.a. for its shareholders, even if there was a recession along the way. That would be anything but a bad return from a company that has been in business for a century, and the stock of which is a highly liquid blue chip (GBP 12bn / EUR 15bn market cap).

In my view, IAG stock is one for the retirement portfolio. I am so bullish about it, that I made the effort to research and write one of the most complex research reports of my past 25 years of writing.

"Buy American" – an ultra-contrarian investment for short and long-term gains

20 December 2019

I try very hard to feature stocks where I am a lone voice in the desert. The less aligned with the consensus my views are, the better! Provided, of course, that I have uncovered the facts and figures that justify taking such a non-consensus position.

If you asked investors about the company that I have featured in my latest 47-page report, you'd probably get the following consensus view:

  • It operates in an industry that is primarily famous for frequent bankruptcies.
  • Brutal competition and price-conscious customers have killed its profit margins.
  • The investor community is going to forever shun the entire sector.

However, my non-consensus evaluation of the company is quite different:

  • The industry has morphed into an oligopoly with benign competition.
  • Two of the world's best value investors have already bought up 25% of the company. One has recently been buying more, and the other one has publicly stated that he might end up bidding for the entire company.
  • Starting in early 2020, there are concrete catalysts for the stock price to move higher.

Warren Buffett has already ploughed billions into this opportunity. But there is a lot more to it than just Buffett's interest.

This is a report that will surprise you with many of its findings.

A clever niche opportunity among mutual funds

29 November 2019 has uncovered a highly unusual special situation among Germany-based mutual funds.

The fund in question owns one unlisted investment, which could soon be listed on a stock exchange. The conservatively managed and highly rated fund has been accounting for this stake based on its October 2018 historical purchase price. Were this portfolio company to be IPO'ed, the fund would likely experience an "overnight" net asset value increase of 7%; and maybe even more.

Virtually all pieces of this puzzle are already in the public domain. However, no one has made an effort yet to put two and two together.

It's a conservative investment, i.e., it won't double overnight. But it is one that could appeal to those of my readers who would like to "stash away" some money.

This fund could, in retrospective, turn out to be the equivalent of "free money".

All is exclusively revealed and explained in this Members-only, 20-page report by

Italian banks – a Renaissance (for some)

1 November 2019

Greece used to be the poster child of Europe's banking crisis. However, it has recently become the poster child for fulminant returns. Stocks of leading Greek banks are up massively since January 2019:

  • Piraeus Bank: +300%.
  • National Bank of Greece: +190%.
  • Eurobank Ergasis: +90%.
  • Alpha Bank: +68%.
  • Attica Bank: +300%.

These aren't small-cap companies, but some of the largest banks of the country.

The entire Greek stock market has had the best performance in over 20 years. Few investors saw this coming. They underestimated the tinderbox reaction that happens when stock valuations are at rock-bottom and news about a gradual turnaround start to come in. For Greece bank stocks, going from "terrible" to "okay" was enough to spark a major rally.

If you missed out on Greece, then you might get a second chance with Italy. One Italian bank, in particular, sticks out as an attractive value play with clear catalysts on the horizon.

Just like the Greek banks, the dynamics currently at work in Italy's banking sector are not yet widely understood or noticed. My report looks at these misconceptions, and it draws a few surprising conclusions.

100 times your money?

7 October 2019

Once a year, this website features a company that has the potential to deliver a 100-fold return over a five to ten-year period.

Sounds incredible? There are actually timeless rules and guidelines for spotting such outliers early on, and scientific studies provide further analysis of them. Following these well-established rules is much more likely to yield outstanding long-term results than buying into highly speculative stocks and hoping to hit the jackpot overnight. It's not easy, but if you aren't systematic about trying you'll certainly never get there.

My report about this year's candidate also explains how to train yourself to spot such opportunities. It delves deeper into the subject of finding the kind of outlier company that can turn EUR/USD 10,000 into EUR/USD 1,000,000 over a realistic timeframe.

Most importantly, the 22-page report features a company that is listed on a major European exchange. This company's stock has a lot of potential in any case, and it might just turn out to become a potential '100-bagger'.

I thought long and hard about the first such candidate to introduce, and this report is the result. Of course, it's for Members only!

Brexit bargain

26 September 2019

Have you ever been to Covent Garden in London? This major tourist attraction is actually available for investment. The famous "Market Hall" and 78 surrounding properties are owned by a (little-known) publicly listed company.

Because of several recent developments (Brexit being just one of them), the stock price has fallen 50%. The company's management is currently working on implementing several steps aimed at turning around the stock's performance. News about this is due out soon.

The company in question could fall prey to a bid. It could also turn out to be a low-risk, high-quality value investment for those who are seeking long-term capital growth. My 24-page report discusses who should look at this investment and why.

British takeover target

13 August 2019

This world-leading company (top 3 globally) is virtually sure to get into the crosshairs of a takeover bid sometime during the next 12 months, possibly a lot earlier.

Its industry has high barriers of entry; it is projected to grow organically at nearly twice the speed of global GDP growth, and it offers a rare opportunity to consolidate a highly fragmented sector from the ground up. Large private equity companies are known to be interested in this space, but there is a real lack of suitable targets - except this particular company!

Based on an estimate of its cash flow and a comparison with other recent transactions in this industry, the stock could attract a bid at a price that is 75% higher than the stock price at the time of publication.

Bonus report: Société des Bains de Mer de Monaco (SBM)

2 August 2019

Is this the world's most glamourous publicly listed company? Paris-listed SBM owns much of Monte Carlo's most valuable real estate, including the Hôtel de Paris, the Café de Paris, and the uber-luxurious One Monte Carlo residential development.

Established in 1863, the company is majority-owned by the ruling monarch of the Principality of Monaco, Prince Albert II and his family.

The 76-page report is the sequel to my seminal 2004 analysis of the company. At the time, SBM was trading at the value of its cash reserves and the entire debt-free real estate was effectively for free. The share shot up 228%, but then stagnated again for a decade.

Recently, SBM shares once again gathered steam. Is it time to buy again?

Gazprom Bonus Report

Bonus report: the coming end of Gazprom's pipeline export monopoly?

23 May 2019

Vladimir Putin enjoys making unexpected moves, and one such upcoming move could be the end of Gazprom's monopoly right to export gas in a gaseous state through pipelines.

Gazprom did already surprise the market recently, by announcing a doubling of its dividend payment for 2018. This led to the share price making a bigger one-day leap than on any other day during the past decade. Also, it catapulted the dividend yield for my readers to a staggering 13% p.a.

Are more surprises coming the way of Gazprom shareholders?

This bonus report, which adds to my 91-page research piece issued on 28 December 2018, takes an initial look at the currently available evidence.

European technology takeover target

26 April 2019

Occasionally, this website will steer away from its habit of focussing on long-term investments, and introduce an investment with a short-term horizon.

E.g., back in November 2018, I wrote about a luxury hotel operator that I believed was going to receive a much higher takeover bid than the market anticipated at the time. Just two weeks later, this bid came in and my readers were able to pocket a quick 34% profit.

Bid situations are an exciting area, but timing and valuations are critical: 

  • You don't want to buy into a company where it subsequently takes years and years before anyone makes a bid.
  • You'll need to be pretty sure that as and when a bid is made, it offers a sufficiently high upside compared to the price you paid.
  • Last but certainly not least, you'll want good fundamentals to ensure you don't face a huge downside in case the anticipated bid doesn't happen for whatever reason. 

With this 30-page research report, I am confident there is a new, attractive case for placing a bet on a coming takeover bid with ample upside, a reasonably clear time horizon, and limited downside.

Israel gas report

2 April 2019

Israel was long joked about as the ONLY place in the Middle East that didn't have any oil or gas. This changed in 2009/10 when one of the world's largest ever gas fields (and multiple smaller ones) were discovered in the depth of the Eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Israel.

Several publicly listed companies were involved in the discoveries, and the subsequent hype led to some of their shareholders temporarily making up to ten times their money.

However, the discoveries didn't lead to the quick ramping-up of Israeli gas production that the market had hoped for. Politics caused a six-year delay because Israel was struggling with how to handle such a mega-resource. Share prices faltered again.

This 104-page report looks in detail at the one company that is likely to emerge as the big winner of all of these developments, and it provides extensive background about the industry and the current changes in the region.

This share is currently on hardly anyone's radar screen, but it's already clear why this is virtually certain to change in 2019 and 2020.

Porsche SE

28 January 2019

In 2008, carmaker Porsche attempted a hostile takeover of Volkswagen – a company with 50 times its own car output! The audacious transaction ended in financial disaster. The Porsche/Piëch family needed a financial bail-out and lost ownership of its car brand.

To this day, the Porsche/Piëch clan controls a 52.2% voting stake in Volkswagen. However, Volkswagen shares are currently trading at a depressingly cheap valuation.

What is the world’s most influential automobile family going to do to turn around the family fortune? Does the family need to become more assertive again, or is Volkswagen’s new management already doing all the right moves to get Volkswagen shares moving again?

Porsche SE is the publicly-listed holding company of the Porsche/Piëch family. This 72-page report gives you all the ins and outs of an opportunity that is unlike any other among publicly-quoted automobile companies.


28 December 2018

Once celebrated by Western media as likely to become the world's first trillion dollar company, Gazprom fell out of favour and has seen its market value plunge from USD 367bn in 2008 to now USD 50bn.

Few companies are as polarizing as Gazprom.

This report is looking at a range of lesser-known changes that the company has recently undergone. Its main thesis is that Putin's self-interest is tipping from utilising Gazprom as a political tool to turning the government's 51% stake into a valuable financial asset. He will work to re-establish Gazprom on international equity markets, aiming to create an additional >USD 1tr in Gazprom shareholder value.

If this report's controversial thesis is proven right, the share price is likely to rise by a factor of 5 during the next few years; and possibly by a factor of 20 in the long run.

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