My best investment ideas
My in-depth reports, which always cover ONE specific investment in great detail, are the heart and core of this website. They mostly cover very liquid shares that most anyone can purchase on major stock exchanges around the world, and occasionally cover a small cap company or an alternative investment. Once I have covered a company in an extensive report, I regularly report about it in an e-letter that only goes out to paying Members and provides updates about past reports.
British Takeover Target
13 August 2019
This world-leading company (top 3 globally) is virtually sure to get into the crosshairs of a takeover bid sometime during the next 12 months, possibly a lot earlier.
Its industry has high barriers of entry; it is projected to grow organically at nearly twice the speed of global GDP growth, and it offers a rare opportunity to consolidate a highly fragmented sector from the ground up. Large private equity companies are known to be interested in this space, but there is a real lack of suitable targets - except this particular company!
Based on an estimate of its cash flow and a comparison with other recent transactions in this industry, the stock could attract a bid at a price that is 75% higher than the stock price at the time of publication.
To give my Members an edge, I have purposefully blurred out all indications the company of this report is dealing with or even which industry it is operating in.
Bonus Report: Société des Bains de Mer de Monaco (SBM)
2 August 2019
Is this the world's most glamourous publicly listed company? Paris-listed SBM owns much of Monte Carlo's most valuable real estate, including the Hôtel de Paris, the Café de Paris, and the uber-luxurious One Monte Carlo residential development.
Established in 1863, the company is majority-owned by the ruling monarch of the Principality of Monaco, Prince Albert II and his family.
The 76-page report is the sequel to my seminal 2004 analysis of the company. At the time, SBM was trading at the value of its cash reserves and the entire debt-free real estate was effectively for free. The share shot up 228%, but then stagnated again for a decade.
Recently, SBM shares once again gathered steam. Is it time to buy again?
Bonus Report: The Coming End of Gazprom's Pipeline Export Monopoly?
23 May 2019
Vladimir Putin enjoys making unexpected moves, and one such upcoming move could be the end of Gazprom's monopoly right to export gas in a gaseous state through pipelines.
Gazprom did already surprise the market recently, by announcing a doubling of its dividend payment for 2018. This led to the share price making a bigger one-day leap than on any other day during the past decade. Also, it catapulted the dividend yield for my readers to a staggering 13% p.a.
Are more surprises coming the way of Gazprom shareholders?
This bonus report, which adds to my 91-page research piece issued on 28 December 2018, takes an initial look at the currently available evidence.
European Technology Takeover Target
26 April 2019
Occasionally, this website will steer away from its habit of focussing on long-term investments, and introduce an investment with a short-term horizon.
E.g., back in November 2018, I wrote about a luxury hotel operator that I believed was going to receive a much higher takeover bid than the market anticipated at the time. Just two weeks later, this bid came in and my readers were able to pocket a quick 34% profit.
Bid situations are an exciting area, but timing and valuations are critical:
- You don't want to buy into a company where it subsequently takes years and years before anyone makes a bid.
- You'll need to be pretty sure that as and when a bid is made, it offers a sufficiently high upside compared to the price you paid.
- Last but certainly not least, you'll want good fundamentals to ensure you don't face a huge downside in case the anticipated bid doesn't happen for whatever reason.
With this 30-page research report, I am confident there is a new, attractive case for placing a bet on a coming takeover bid with ample upside, a reasonably clear time horizon, and limited downside.
Israel Gas Report
2 April 2019
Israel was long joked about as the ONLY place in the Middle East that didn't have any oil or gas. This changed in 2009/10 when one of the world's largest ever gas fields (and multiple smaller ones) were discovered in the depth of the Eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Israel.
Several publicly listed companies were involved in the discoveries, and the subsequent hype led to some of their shareholders temporarily making up to ten times their money.
However, the discoveries didn't lead to the quick ramping-up of Israeli gas production that the market had hoped for. Politics caused a six-year delay because Israel was struggling with how to handle such a mega-resource. Share prices faltered again.
This 104-page report looks in detail at the one company that is likely to emerge as the big winner of all of these developments, and it provides extensive background about the industry and the current changes in the region.
This share is currently on hardly anyone's radar screen, but it's already clear why this is virtually certain to change in 2019 and 2020.
28 January 2019
In 2008, car-maker Porsche attempted a hostile take-over of Volkswagen – a company with 50 times its own car output! The audacious transaction ended in financial disaster. The Porsche-Piëch family needed a financial bail-out and lost ownership of its car brand.
To this day, the Porsche-Piëch clan controls a 52.2% voting stake in Volkswagen. However, Volkswagen shares are currently trading at a depressingly cheap valuation.
What is the world’s most influential automobile family going to do to turn around the family fortune? Does the family need to become more assertive again, or is Volkswagen’s new management already doing all the right moves to get Volkswagen shares moving again?
Porsche SE is the publicly listed holding company of the Porsche-Piëch family. This 72-page report gives you all the Ins and Outs of an opportunity that is unlike any other among publicly-quoted automobile companies.
28 December 2018
Once celebrated by Western media as likely to become the world's first Trillion Dollar company, Gazprom fell out of favor and has seen its market value plunge from $367bn in 2008 to now $50bn.
Few companies are as polarizing as Gazprom.
This report is looking at a range of lesser-known changes that the company has recently undergone. Its main thesis is that Putin's self-interest is tipping from utilizing Gazprom as a political tool to turning the government's 51% stake into a valuable financial asset. He will work to re-establish Gazprom on international equity markets, aiming to create an additional >$1Tr in Gazprom shareholder value.
If this report’s controversial thesis is proven right, the share price is likely to rise by a factor of 5 during the next few years; and possibly by a factor of 20 in the long-run.