Bonus Report: The Coming End of Gazprom's Pipeline Export Monopoly?

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Bonus Report: The Coming End of Gazprom's Pipeline Export Monopoly?

23 May 2019

The doubling of Gazprom's 2018 dividend is a development the market had not thought possible. Except, perhaps, the open-minded readers of this website. On 28 December 2018, I had set out the following:

"From 2019 onwards, Gazprom will produce increasing amounts of cash and initiate a long-term change to its dividend policy."

It's dangerous to assume that because I was right once, I'll be right again next time. That's why this bonus report about Gazprom is a "think piece" more than a prediction. It aims to add additional aspects to the public debate, and actively invites reader feedback.

Still, by looking at the evidence, I concluded that the following is well possible within the next 12-24 months:

  • A full liberalisation of Russia's gas export market. This would have transformative effects on Gazprom's business and finances, and probably unlock billions of savings as well as create billions of additional annual revenue.
  • Spinning off the company's pipeline network into a separate, publicly listed company (and/or other spin-offs).
  • The company using such changes to totally rejig its legal, strategic and operational position in the EU; with a solution to the problematic Ukraine pipeline possibly thrown in for good measure.

How realistic is such a development? What would it mean for Gazprom shareholders? What are Putin's ultimate interests?

This bonus report, which does not count towards my annual goal of providing Members with ten new investment ideas, is aimed at giving some initial answers.

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l  Report updates

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16 February 2021

Report Update (PDF - 0.9MB)

15 February 2021

Report Update (PDF - 1.1MB)

12 August 2019

Report Update (PDF - 0.8MB)

20 May 2019

Report Update (PDF - 0.2MB)

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