Publicly listed Venezuela recovery play

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Exclusive report for Lifetime Members only

Exclusive report for Lifetime Members only

Publicly listed Venezuela recovery play

17 March 2023

Placing a bet on Venezuela's recovery is anything but easy. Distressed government bonds are difficult to trade, and US citizens are even prohibited from investing in them. The local stock market is impossible to tap into for foreign private investors. Flying to Caracas to buy real estate is not exactly everyone's cup of tea, either.

The good news is, there is a way to benefit from a recovery in a way that is:

  • Easy: anyone with a brokerage account can buy and sell this security.
  • Compliant: even US citizens are allowed in, despite the sanctions regime.
  • Cheap: a lower valuation than that of other Venezuelan investments which specialist hedge funds have been mopping up.

There is also plenty of upside:

In a base-case scenario, this investment will rise in value by a factor of 2-3 over the course of 3-5 years (or even faster, with a bit of luck).

In a best-case scenario, it can increase tenfold – or even more.

In a worst-case scenario, investors probably still get about 50% of their money out.

That's what I call an asymmetrical play.

Crucially, on 15 March 2023, a catalyst became apparent that could give the Venezuelan turnaround a LOT of momentum in 2023 (possibly as early as the next few weeks).

At this stage, I am not going to reveal more about the details.

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