Ukraine – invest now rather than later

Most reporting about Ukraine focuses on the war and politics.

However, Ukraine also offers:

• A blue-chip stock that could deliver a 10x return.
• Up to 22% p.a. rental yields from real estate, payable in US dollars.
• First-mover-type opportunities for entrepreneurs.

You may ask: "Does Ukraine REALLY offer such opportunities?"

My thesis is that you should invest in Ukraine now, rather than wait for an end to the war.

Read my conclusions from 15 months of research, including five visits.

Also, learn about my upcoming full-day online conference "Investing in Ukraine – How to gain exposure before global capital returns" on 23 April.

My elevator pitch for Ukraine

At a recent dinner with readers, one of them asked for a summary of why I like the idea of investing in Ukraine.

It all boils down to this.

Ukraine's economy currently has a size of about USD 400bn.

The West is discussing injecting up to USD 800bn into the country, through a combination of government support and private investment.

Source: Modern Diplomacy, 26 February 2026.

You can argue about the details.

However, if you inject USD 800bn into a USD 400bn economy, there will be a reaction:

• Transformative changes in key sectors.
• Rising incomes.
• Rising asset prices.

None of this should be controversial.

A wall of capital is waiting on the sidelines, looking to enter Ukraine eventually. Speak to any multilateral organisation involved in foreign investment, and they'll confirm this.

Since starting to look more closely at this subject, I have:

• Attended multiple Ukraine reconstruction conferences.
• Spoke to government entities and global organisations.
• Quizzed company executives, lawyers, and entrepreneurs.

Everyone is telling me the same thing: companies around the world are preparing to invest in Ukraine.

Of course, most (but not all!) are waiting for the conflict to end.

In the meantime, they plan and prepare – but they don't act.

What is holding them back includes:

• Gaps in planning (e.g. inability to insure staff travelling to Ukraine).
• Fear of headline risk.
• Lack of reliable information from afar.

What will all of this lead to?

At some point, everyone may try to pass through the same door at the same time.

There is no need to explain why, as an investor, you would want to get there first.

The best time to go into Ukraine is now

In October 2025, I attended a major Ukraine reconstruction conference in Kyiv.

"Just come to Ukraine and see the reality on the ground", one Ukrainian politician urged – a plea driven by frustration over widespread misinformation holding back investment.

Indeed, the reality on the ground is very different from what many expect.

If Russia had wanted to target large parts of Ukraine's business and political community, it could have done so. Yet no one at the conference seemed concerned, despite the location of the event being widely shared on social media.

By that point, I had already learned that reality differs significantly from perception.

I even joked about some of the exaggerated fears people abroad have – e.g. the risk of me getting dragged into the back of a Ukrainian military van and finding myself at the front – claims that locals themselves react to with disbelief.

Of course, Ukraine is a country at war, and Kyiv is affected.

Yet life continues.

I wrote about many practical aspects in my April 2025 article "Ukraine research excursion – what did I find?".

Economic activity also continues:

• The investment firm of French billionaire Xavier Niel spent USD 500m on acquiring Ukrainian telecom firms Lifecell and Datagroup-Volia.
• Drone start-up Swarmer (ISIN US86989Y1091, Nasdaq:SWMR) surged over 1,000% after listing.
• Kyiv's restaurant sector remains active, from coffee chain Idealist expanding to new locations, restaurant group Mimosa opening Pizzeria Romantica to trial a potential chain concept, or the new Salon du Champagne offering high-end dining that would rival the most expensive venues in London or New York.

Source: World Coffee Portal, 6 June 2025.

None of this diminishes the reality of war.

But it should not prevent a rational discussion about investment opportunities.

On one trips, I met a venture capitalist who invested in a drone start-up at a USD 3m valuation in 2022. That company is now targeting an IPO at a valuation above USD 1bn.

Estimates of how many unicorns may emerge from Ukraine are hotly debated. Ukraine's presidential advisor, Oleksandr Kamyshin, recently claimed that there are "already 10 Ukrainian defence tech unicorns." Others suggest he may be getting slightly ahead of himself.

What's no longer in doubt, however, is that Ukraine could "become one of the world's most dynamic emerging economies", as Barron's described it in a 23 January 2026 feature headlined "Ukraine Will Be the Business Opportunity of the Decade".

Don't believe it?

South Korea remains technically at war – yet became one of the world's most advanced economies.

Conflicts can "freeze" – and economies can still thrive.

Source: Politico, 4 September 2025.

Ukraine's defence industry is going global

For years, Ukraine's defence sector was seen as a potential growth engine – similar to Israel in earlier decades.

Now, this is becoming reality.

A key shift occurred in November 2025, when Ukraine began allowing "controlled exports" of military equipment. The country is opening ten weapon export centres in Europe, and expanding drone production in Germany.

During the past weeks, Ukraine has secured multiple long-term defence deals with Gulf states.

As the free weekly newsletter Ukraine Business Roundup wrote on 1 April 2026:

"In just a few weeks, Ukraine saw its first defense tech firm go public on NASDAQ, the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Fund back a key drone systems company, and first-person view drone giant General Cherry signed a deal to build drones in the U.S

Also in March, Ukrainian-founded (but now London-based) defense tech startup UForce raised $50 million in a seed round led by Shield Capital and Lakestar, while Buntar Aerospace secured $10.4 million from American and Norwegian investors.

….

Bohdan Krotevych, ex-chief of staff of the 12th Azov Brigade: 'Ukrainian drones are not a revolution at the level of physics or materials. But they are a revolution at the level of application, scaling, and adaptability. That is what defines their role in modern warfare. They have become a tool that systematically changes the balance on the battlefield.' 

One wonders if investors really care about application, scaling, and adaptability. But it seems many of them have finally been sold on Ukraine's defense innovations, and we're sure to see more. Admittedly, I've been a skeptic about Ukraine's defense tech having much of a future beyond the war. But as the conflict drags on and I observe all these developments, I'm starting to think that maybe I was wrong. Maybe this is the future – and we'd better all get on board."

This emerging industry may, indeed, be approaching critical mass.

In fact, Ukraine has already emerged as a "drone superpower" when judged by production numbers. The country is now producing approximately 4m drones annually. By comparison, the US recently manufactured around 100,000 military drones per year. Since 2022, the number of drone manufacturers in Ukraine has risen from 20 to 500, and production is now 40 times greater than that of the US. Some of this output comes from highly motivated individuals assembling drones outside working hours, but there are also increasingly sophisticated companies emerging.

Does the defence industry have the potential to make a meaningful contribution to the country's future economic development?

Increasingly, this appears to be a realistic prospect rather than a mere pipedream of venture capitalists. For public market investors, a growing number of opportunities are becoming available, including in unexpected areas. For example, Tokyo-listed Terra Drone (ISIN JP3546450002, TYO:278A) just announced its entry into the Ukrainian defence tech sector – the first Japanese company to do so. Its share price is up 150% since the beginning of the year.

Terra Drone.

However, some of Ukraine's most interesting opportunities may lie in more traditional industries.

Beyond defence tech and the country's long-standing strength in IT services, it's worth considering the world's oldest economic sector.

The Western world's cheapest agricultural land

My first extensive article on investing in Ukraine, "Ukrainian agriculture stocks – land for 15 dollars an acre?", covered half a dozen Ukrainian agriculture companies listed in Warsaw (home to many Ukrainian listings, given Kyiv's underdeveloped stock exchange), London (where several "Ukrainian" companies with overseas legal domiciles have their primary listing), and Frankfurt (which hosts many OTC-listed foreign stocks).

Since then, some investments in this sector have doubled and tripled in value. Astarta Holding (ISIN NL0000686509, WAR:AST) is now trading at pre-war levels, while MHP SE (ISIN US55302T2042, UK:MHP) is trading above them.

Along the way, there was also a 3x return to be made in MHP's publicly traded bonds (as covered in last week's article "Ukrainian agriculture stocks – the world's ultimate land bargain?").

But does the thesis of cheap Ukrainian agricultural land still hold – and is there more upside to come from this basic but highly accessible sector?

Don't take it from me, but from someone with deep insights and real skin in the game.

Kopernik Global is a Florida-based value fund manager. Its founder, Dave Iben, specialises in identifying mispriced securities, often in unpopular, out-of-favour areas such as emerging markets, commodities, and mining. His success has led the firm to manage over USD 10bn today.

Generously, Dave delegated his agriculture analyst, Patrick Beetz, to present at Investing in Ukraine. When I caught up with Patrick, he agreed to headline his talk "Ukrainian agriculture stocks – the world's cheapest land plays?".

Spoiler alert: Patrick does believe these stocks truly are the world's cheapest agricultural land plays.

To which I would add that there are some surprising elements of potential growth in this part of the Ukrainian economy. For example:

• According to some estimates, agricultural yields could increase by 30-50% through investment in modern technology, infrastructure, and financing.
• Significant value could be created by developing branded products for European markets, rather than exporting raw commodities.
• 80% (!) of the agricultural sector remains in the hands of small and medium-sized businesses, giving larger operators an opportunity to grow through consolidation.

We may yet see long-term compounders and multi-baggers emerge from this seemingly old-fashioned sector.

Unlike defence tech – which currently remains largely the domain of venture capital – the agricultural sector is already accessible to investors via public markets. Several relatively mature companies offer liquidity through listings on major exchanges, accessible to anyone with a standard brokerage account. No large minimum investments or multi-year lock-ups are required.

If I revealed more, I'd risk stealing Patrick's thunder.

You can hear his full analysis at the online conference on 23 April (or by purchasing the recordings afterwards).

At the event, you'll also learn about…

How to gross 22% p.a. with real estate

My long-time friend and business partner, John Suggitt, has a 25-year history of living and working in Ukraine.

Originally from Canada, he built his finance career co-founding Concorde Capital (currently Ukraine's #2 investment bank) and serving as Chief Operating Officer at Dragon Capital (today Ukraine's leading investment bank). Over the past 15 years, he has focused on Kyiv real estate: sourcing, refurbishing, leasing, and managing income-producing buildings.

John currently manages two Cyprus-based, exchange-listed real-estate funds and continued refurbishing properties in Kyiv even during the war. In one recent project, he turned a derelict basement into contemporary workspace. Given the scarcity of modern office space in Kyiv, an international aid organisation immediately leased it. The property now delivers a 22.3% p.a. gross yield (15-16% net) backed up by a five-year US dollar-denominated contract with a fully funded Western tenant.

Carefully sourced, Kyiv real estate is roughly a third the price of comparable Polish real estate, making it the cheapest in the region. Although I usually focus on public markets, I have come to see real estate in Ukraine as both smart and scalable. So much so that I've teamed up with John to launch our own fund for investing in central Kyiv real estate now – without waiting for the end of the war.

John and I recently recorded a 45-minute podcast discussing our plans.

"Ukraine real estate: a generational opportunity?" (45-minute conversation available on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts).

The fund will be legally separate from Undervalued-Shares.com. Participants will receive a link to download additional material (accessible if you meet legal requirements). For a preview, one slide captures the market situation succinctly:

"Kyiv is a large, deep market offering scale and diversified exposure. It's capital-starved today, but offers direct, controllable cash flow secured on hard assets. As seen across CEE region, the pull of capital cities often defies the demographic challenges. Kyiv real estate is currently completely mispriced, and it offers a practical route – scalable, cash-generative and controllable."

At the 23 April online conference, John and I will jointly present "Why real estate in Ukraine, and why now?".

Our half-hour conversation will also explore trends highlighted in The Economist's 10 March 2026 article: "Ukraine's housing market is increasingly peculiar".

Additionally, we will share unique figures and background information on Kyiv real estate that have not been compiled (or presented) elsewhere.

Watch this space – this is a presentation you won't want to miss.

Context and unique insights from the ground

Over the past 12 months, I've spent more time in Kyiv than anywhere else during that period (except Sark, of course).

I've gathered a wealth of insights, ranging from personal anecdotes to official statistics. In February, I stayed in Kyiv during an extreme cold spell (see short videos here, here, here and here).

Yours truly during the infamous February 2026 cold spell in Kyiv.

All of these observations and contacts inspired me to host an event on investing in Ukraine that is very different from any other. It will focus on opportunities that are:

• Purely private capital – not linked to IFC, EBRD, World Bank, etc.
• Traded on Western exchanges or otherwise accessible to private investors.
• Worth investigating now – a "buy" while the war still continues.

My goal is to provide insights that are genuinely unique, grounded in real on-the-ground experience rather than politics.

The first presentation will be by Liliane Bivings, American-born Business Editor of Kyiv Independent, a reader-funded English-language newspaper with an 80-person team based in Kyiv. Liliane is also the author of the free "Investor's guide to Ukraine".

She will cover topics including:

• Has all of Ukraine been reduced to rubble?
• Regional differences within Ukraine.
• Sectors attracting investor interest.
• Misleading headlines about foreign investment.
• Is Ukraine genuinely cheap to invest in today?
• Why corruption may not be what you think.
• Moving money in and out of the country.
• The reality of war risk insurance.
• Cultural considerations when doing business in Ukraine.
• Why visiting is essential to see beyond distortions.

There will also be time for Q&A, and the conference will conclude with an "Ask us anything" session, where you can question John, Liliane and myself on any topic not covered in the previous ten presentations.

The current draft agenda is available on the conference website.

More speakers and topics will be revealed in the coming weeks, so check back for the full agenda before booking your ticket (or buying access to the recordings).

10% of ticket revenues will be donated to support independent journalism in Ukraine.

Do your own research – but don't miss this opportunity

As with any country in active conflict, investors must proceed with caution.

At the same time, Undervalued-Shares.com readers will recognise that Ukraine's transformation offers genuinely transformative opportunities.

If I were a young entrepreneur seeking a large, fairly developed market with low competition niches, I'd seriously consider relocating to Ukraine. Real first-mover opportunities exist – which I will briefly explore in my presentation "Rapid Fire: 10 surprising discoveries about Ukraine's economy today that you had no idea about".

The event will also cover an array of publicly listed securities, including:

• Ferrexpo PLC – an exclusive briefing (details coming soon).
• Building a pan-European basket of publicly traded Ukraine proxies.
• Polish equities as a way to benefit from Marshall Plan II.

For clarity, Undervalued-Shares.com receives no commissions from presenters. The agenda was designed solely to deliver a full day of insights you won't find anywhere else, allowing investors to make their own informed decisions.

Meanwhile, I'll be posting additional free video teasers via LinkedIn during my 12-19 April visit to Kyiv.

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