Dating stocks – value plays or melting ice cubes?

The share price of Match Group ('Tinder') is down nearly 85%, while Bumble has lost more than 95%.

Grindr, the gay dating app, has fallen around 60%.

Are these promising value stocks, or is the very concept of online dating heading for the dustbin of history?

A fascinating sector to follow

"The world of dating apps is very alien to me. I have no clue what works and what doesn't. Only biotech is worse."

So said an esteemed member of my WhatsApp group of London finance bros when I floated the subject of dating app stocks.

Investors have known since the days of legendary fund manager Peter Lynch that there is real value in understanding – and ideally using – a product.

Never one to shy away from experimentation, I recently signed up to Tinder, the (in)famous dating app owned by Match Group (ISIN US57667L1070, Nasdaq:MTCH), while spending two weeks in Ukraine.

Say what you want about online dating in general and Tinder in particular, but the app clearly still has scale. Globally, it's used by 50-75m people each month, with some seasonality.

Many users are very attractive, at least judging by my swiping in Kyiv. Most profiles suggested people were looking for love rather than hookups. From a product perspective, it works.

From an investor's perspective, one thing stood out immediately: Tinder is exceptionally good at separating its (male) users from their money. Many of the app's useful features sit behind upsells. I repeatedly found myself having to pay extra to unlock functions I wanted to use right then and there. There is a reason Tinder isn't only synonymous with online dating but also captures a disproportionate share of industry revenue. Of every dollar spent globally on dating apps, 30-40 cents go to platforms owned by Match Group.

Yet this is also an industry with well-documented problems. For years, popular media have highlighted the pitfalls of swiping for love. Some of the headlines that first sparked my interest in whether this is a temporary blip or a structural crisis include:

"Singles are sick of dating apps"
CNN, 14 February 2024

"Tinder sued after 'addicting' users to dating apps instead of finding them love"
The Telegraph, 15 February 2024

"'Addictive as gambling': How dating apps ruined a generation's love lives"
The Telegraph, 15 April 2024

"Bumble's women worn out with making the first move"
The Times, 30 April 2024

"Young women fall out of love with dating apps"
Financial Times, 26 May 2024

It all sounds rather bleak.

Then again, dating apps have always been controversial – and highly profitable. The loneliness of millions has proven a remarkably monetisable phenomenon.

"Dating Apps Put a Hefty Price Tag on Finding Love"
The Wall Street Journal, 26 August 2023

"Dating apps test just how much users will pay for love"
Financial Times, 9 January 2024

"Tinder's Tough Love Should Ultimately Serve Match Well"
The Wall Street Journal, 14 December 2024

And now, of course, there is AI.

"Whitney Wolfe Herd Has a New Idea for Bumble .... and believes artificial intelligence could be the matchmaker we all need"
The Wall Street Journal, 29 August 2025

"Hinge CEO Leaves to Start an AI-Driven Dating App"
The Wall Street Journal, 9 December 2025

"Can AI really help us find love?"
Financial Times, 31 December 2025

Not one to shy away from taking risks and testing products, I also signed up to Hinge, Match Group's second most important product, and test-drove it in London. Suffice to say, there is an incredible number of smoking-hot 50-something women out there (never mind other age groups). Compared with Tinder, Hinge felt more intentional and more civilised. The upselling was less aggressive.

Will shareholders feel the love again?

Match Group had a brief moment in summer and autumn 2025 when it became a popular value and turnaround play.

The company appointed a new CEO, Spencer Rascoff, who arrived with top-notch credentials. After working in M&A at Goldman Sachs, he founded an Internet company that he later sold to Expedia. He went on to start Zillow, completing 17 acquisitions over 16 years. His family office incubated eight companies, and he has served on the boards of Palantir, TripAdvisor – and Match Group! Upon becoming CEO, Rascoff bought stock worth millions. Speak of promising credentials and skin in the game.

Match Group.

In August 2025, Deutsche Bank published a research note headlined "Culture Reset Done, Now Focusing on Product Revitalization". It set out:

"While Tinder and overall payer declines worsened q/q, we recognize that … we are only in the initial months of a three-phase turnaround where management has reset the culture, and has started ramping product velocity, which are foundational to steps required to support an audience revival. ... The company raised its FCF guide for the year to $1.06-$1.09bn, up from $1.0-$1.03bn previously, partially due to lower expected cash taxes from the new U.S. tax law. During the quarter, MTCH returned $515mn to shareholders via repurchases (spending $420mn for ~14mn shares) and dividends ($95mn). In 1H25, Match returned ~125% of its FCF to shareholders, and we expect the company likely will remain aggressive in its share buyback initiatives in the near- to mid-term. .... Net-net, we continue to believe 1) we are in the early stages of a long-term and sustainable turnaround of the platform ... management's cost discipline and commitment to returning at least 100% of FCF to shareholders through buybacks and dividends offer an attractive equity yield (11% based on the current after-hours price), for investors willing to be patient, and 3) with the stock trading at just 9x Street FY26E EBITDA, we believe that there is still favorable risk reward at current levels."

In September 2025, the stock was highlighted at the (highly recommended) FatAlpha Value (Cyprus) conference as a potential re-rating candidate: "Strong FCF (FCF yield >10%) and buybacks provide margin of safety, … shares could trade 74%-123% higher in 1.5 years in a positive re-rating."

A widely followed episode of The Investor's Podcast Network asked "Match Group: Is Finding Love a Good Investment?".

Yet the enthusiasm faded. The stock traded around USD 38 at the time; it now sits at USD 30.

Is it worth revisiting the case?

Earlier this month, Match Group reported full-year results and painted an optimistic picture. Revenue is expected to remain stable around USD 3.5bn in 2026 while free cash flow could rise from USD 1bn (2025) to USD 1.09-1.14bn. Tinder is projected to remain flat; Hinge is expected to continue growing strongly.

What continues to weigh on the stock is a broader shift in the tech industry. Investors have been dumping software and Internet stocks amid fears that AI is going to eat their lunch.

A viral The Wall Street Journal article in February 2025 described Stanford students using AI to create dating opportunities beyond traditional dating apps. As "A Stanford Experiment to Pair 5,000 Singles Has Taken Over Campus" highlighted:

"A student built a matchmaking algorithm that has consumed the school … Created by graduate student Henry Weng, Date Drop has students answer 66 questions about their values, lifestyles and political views. These responses are fed into an algorithm to pair compatible students. Matches 'drop' every Tuesday night at 9 p.m. ... More than 5,000 Stanford students have used Date Drop at a school with about 7,500 undergraduates. It has spread to 10 other colleges including Columbia, Princeton and MIT, and Date Drop just raised $2.1 million in venture-capital funding. The growth, fans say, reflects a reality about many college kids: They're intimidated by real-life courtship and overwhelmed by the endless scroll of dating apps. Entrepreneurial students have found huge demand for alternate matchmaking tools."

To what extent could these new AI-driven matchmaking tools erode the revenue and cash flow of industry giants such as Match Group?

I can imagine a scenario where dating app fatigue intensifies. Platforms such as Tinder and Hinge struggle to reignite user growth and monetisation. More users begin to question the incentives embedded in the business model: if a platform's revenue depends on continued engagement, surely they'd want you to fail in your quest for a partner? An entire online ecosystem now exists dedicated to critiquing dating apps, arguing that they might actually prevent – rather than help – people from dating and finding love.

My own experience nudged me toward scepticism. After experimenting with both Tinder and Hinge, I deleted them. Subjectively, it feels as though the most attractive dating pool may increasingly reside outside the apps. The broader "IRL" (in-real-life) trend could regain market share, not just in dating but across social interaction more generally. That is, admittedly, an intuition rather than a data-driven conclusion. I lack hard metrics to substantiate it – and I could just be a hopelessly outdated old skool guy.

Investors who disagree may find that this is precisely the moment to take a closer look at Match Group. The stock is cheaper than when it first attracted experienced value investors, yet consensus projections haven't deteriorated materially. If those forecasts hold, the valuation is now even more compelling.

Also worth examining is Bumble (ISIN US12047B1052, Nasdaq:BMBL), the formerly famously female-led dating app. I haven't conducted serious work on it but after a more than 95% drop in share price, the company's market cap has shrunk to just USD 400m. Consensus databases suggest it trades at around 1x sales and 3x EV/EBITDA. Will these estimates hold true?

There is also a third publicly traded dating app that may warrant further analysis.

The world's best dating app company?

Grindr (ISIN US39854F1012, NYSE:GRND) became publicly investable during the SPAC boom of 2021-22.

Grindr is a genre-defining app. It is THE app for gay hookups. As such, it's not a 'dating' app but more of a sex app. Still, the principle remains the same, and the different approach could actually make it all the more interesting.

One of my readers recently presented Grindr as a "Best Idea" at a reader dinner. In his written summary – which was shared with Undervalued-Shares.com Members – that reader outlined:

"Grindr benefits from structurally different user behaviour relative to general-market dating platforms. Within the gay male community, lower long-term monogamy rates and fewer permanent relationship outcomes translate into longer cumulative lifetime usage, with users cycling in and out of the platform over many years rather than exiting permanently after forming long-term relationships. While active, third-party app usage data indicate users spend approximately 140-150 minutes per week on the platform, materially higher than general-market dating apps. This elevated weekly time-spent drives significantly greater advertising inventory per active user, supporting higher ad impression volumes, stronger advertiser ROI, and structurally higher advertising revenue per user, reinforcing the case for premium valuation multiples versus broader dating peers."

Demographically, the tailwinds are notable. Around 11% of Gen Z men identify as gay or bisexual, versus just 5% of millennials and 3% of Gen X. Gay men typically form long-term partnerships later than straight men – around age 38 versus 30 – extending the monetisation window. Higher median incomes and lower child-related expenses may also support discretionary spending.

In terms of brand recognition, Grindr literally owns that market. For another good summary of why Grindr is such a unique franchise, see "Grindr: Sex Sells", a 5 November 2024 Substack article by Value Zoomer.

So why is the stock down so sharply from its 2025 peak?

Grindr.

Post-pandemic cooling, and margin loan pressures among two major shareholders have weighed on sentiment. US investors George Raymond Zage III and James Fu Bin Lu, who together own around 60% of the company, pledged their stakes as collateral for personal loans and have been forced to sell amid price declines.

In October 2025, they attempted to take over the entire company alongside a private equity partner, floating a tentative offer of USD 18 per share. Financing uncertainty ultimately derailed the proposal (at least for now), and the stock has since fallen further to just USD 10. Margin-loan pressure has not fully abated. In early February 2026, Lu sold 1.45m shares in a series of open-market transactions at a weighted average price of USD 10.07 per share, according to an SEC filing.

The stock may therefore look quite cheap today. After all, the same controlling shareholders were willing to offer USD 18 per share only a few months ago, and the share price is now hovering around USD 10. Grindr is due to report quarterly results in the next 2-3 weeks, which may provide further clarity.

Critics of the Grindr turnaround thesis point to issues not entirely dissimilar from those raised about other dating apps – though possibly more acute. In September 2025, NINGI Research published a 25-page takedown titled "Grindr Inc. (NYSE: GRND): Undisclosed SEC Investigation, Revolting User Base, Vanishing Moat, Inflated Metrics, and Selling Insiders Highlight Deep Risks". The report describes what it calls the platform's "enshittification" and alleges "a broken product, revolting users, and fake profiles". You can read an X summary here or download the full report here.

So which way will it go for Grindr?

In this case, I didn't do a personal test-drive. My reader reported spending hours per day on the app, and I have no reason to doubt his judgment that it gets the job done.

What attracts me to companies like this is the combination of sticky revenue, strong cash flow, and low valuation. I also believe that the core concept behind such platforms can evolve and adapt to shifting market trends and cultural preferences. Netflix once operated a DVD-by-mail business before pivoting to streaming. Business models can change. Bumble, Tinder, Hinge, and Grindr are all global brands. It is entirely possible that the current sell-off will one day look like an epic buying opportunity.

That said, the industry is unusually complex. There are too many conflicting signals to form a high-conviction view.

For now, at least, I'll swipe left. I reserve the right to revisit these stocks if and when the outlook becomes clearer. Prices may well have recovered by then – which is precisely why some readers may prefer to treat this article as a starting point for their own research.

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