GPW – the changing fortunes of the Warsaw Stock Exchange

In 2020, I argued for buying into the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

Notably, this is the company operating the exchange itself.

Exchanges tend to be domestic monopolies with enormous operational leverage. The marginal cost of processing additional transactions is close to zero.

My thesis came too early – but it has recently started to play out.

Warsaw Stock Exchange.

An early fan of Poland

Earlier this decade, I repeatedly shared my enthusiasm for Poland. For example, I published "Investing in Poland", a three-part Weekly Dispatches series.

As I told my readers at the time:

• Poland had one of the cheapest equity markets in the world.
• It was the fastest-growing economy in Europe over the past 30 years.
• The country offered the prospect of further growth until at least 2030.

I even organised an investor trip to Warsaw titled "Equities in Poland – undervalued and awaiting discovery?". A group of 30 readers spent two days meeting listed Polish companies.

There was one Poland play, in particular, that I felt strongly about.

As I wrote back then:

"The Warsaw Stock Exchange is owned and operated by a publicly listed company. The company has solid growth prospects, but its stock trades as if it were the opposite. By some measures, it is the cheapest publicly traded stock exchange in the world. …. The company that owns the Warsaw Stock Exchange is a proxy for the entire Polish economy and capital market. With a >5% dividend yield and the potential for plenty of positive surprises, it may be one to tuck away for the next few years."

Tucking it away for a few years was required, indeed.

Once again, I had a good idea – but too early. It took until 2025 for the stock to gain traction. Since then, it has doubled.

Why the stock is now moving

What's been driving the share price?

• In the meantime, investors around the world have realised that Poland is going from strength to strength. It has edged past Switzerland to become the world's 20^th largest economy. What was once overlooked has become one of the greatest economic success stories of recent decades – now rivalling cases like South Korea.

Source: AP News, 17 March 2026.

• In the age of AI, exchanges may end up earning less from trading fees but more from the valuable data they generate. Indirectly, the Polish exchange has become something of an AI play.
• Valuations of exchanges globally have continued to rise, making the Warsaw Stock Exchange look even more attractive in relative terms.

In case you are curious about the company, it trades under its official name: Giełda Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie SA (ISIN PLGPW0000017, WAR:GPW).

The company is set to release its latest quarterly results shortly. Thanks to the growth of its business since I first reported on it, the dividend yield still stands at around 5% – even after the share price has doubled.

What happens next?

Much depends on the perception of the entire region, which remains heavily influenced by the war in Ukraine. If (or when) some degree of normality returns, Polish companies could be major beneficiaries of a potential Marshall Plan II aimed at rebuilding the Ukrainian economy. As a platform underpinning the Polish capital market, the Warsaw Stock Exchange would likely serve as a natural proxy for this broader trend.

Source: Ukraine Business News, 27 May 2025.

I may have been too early in highlighting the opportunity – but the broader thesis still holds: "There is a good chance that in 2030, investors will look back and wonder why they didn't spot this opportunity a decade earlier. If you missed out on buying into LSE, Deutsche Boerse, or Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing, you might now have another chance."

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