Burford Capital – back from the dead?

Two days ago, Undervalued-Shares.com hosted its first-ever online conference, "Litigation Investing & Legal Special Situations".

Some 300 participants signed up.

Yours truly presented an updated investment case on Burford Capital.

What was the new angle?

First a double – then 'back to square one'

I have a semi-successful track record covering Burford Capital (ISIN GG00BMGYLN96, UK:BUR and NYSE:BUR).

After publishing an extensive research report in 2022, the stock went on to double. Unfortunately, a subsequent setback erased those gains, and the share price returned to its starting point.

For those unfamiliar with this unique animal of a company, Burford Capital is the world's largest provider of litigation finance. It funds lawsuits in exchange for a share of the proceeds.

Since 2009, the company has grown its portfolio from USD 130m to more than USD 7bn. Annual deployment has increased from USD 11m in 2009 to over USD 1bn today. Globally, it is leading the market with a 30-40% share. The firm deploys its own equity and debt alongside third-party funds.

The stock was listed on AIM in 2009 and has been dual-listed on the NYSE since 2020. Following a short-seller attack in 2019, it has gone sideways for nine years.

The YPF factor

Much of the share price volatility has been driven by a single case: "YPF" – long considered the crown jewel of the portfolio.

The dispute relates to former stakes in Argentinean oil company YPF (ISIN US9842451000, NYSE:YPF), once held by the NYSE-listed holding company Petersen Energía, and the New York-based hedge fund Eton Park. In 2012, Argentina effectively expropriated these shareholders, leading both entities into bankruptcy. Lacking the money (and expertise) to pursue litigation, their claims were acquired by Burford Capital for just USD 15m.

In 2024, a US court granted Burford Capital what the company described as a "complete win". However, collection remains outstanding, and subsequent legal developments have been less favourable. Proceedings remain ongoing and highly complex.

After monetising USD 236m through a partial sale of the claim, Burford Capital currently owns ≈44% of what is widely regarded as a USD 16bn claim. On a pro-rata basis, that equates to USD 7bn, versus a current market cap of USD 2.2bn (GBP 1.6bn). The asset is carried at USD 1.7bn on the balance sheet and represents 43% of the Fair Value Portfolio (Q3/2025).

The probability of a favourable ruling, the enforceability of any judgment against Argentina, and the accounting treatment of the asset are all hotly debated. Developments in the YPF case were the primary driver behind the 2024 share price surge, and a key reason for its subsequent decline.

The new angle

In my 30-minute presentation, I argued that investors are likely to begin assessing Burford Capital based on other important factors.

The firm is also financing a USD 11.5bn (!) claim against Greenland and Denmark – a little-noticed asset that may prove strategically interesting in the current geopolitical environment. Beyond the political dimension, it is simply a very large compensation claim, with one counterparty being a wealthy European country.

At the same time, management is repositioning the company as a broader platform. Going forward, Burford Capital aims to be recognised not only as a litigation financier but as a provider of corporate finance solutions within the legal ecosystem and a broader capital solutions partner to the legal industry. The firm has been expanding both its activities and its messaging accordingly, and this strategic narrative should soon gain wider recognition.

A risky presentation

Delivering this investment case on 25 February 2026 carried obvious risk.

As I told the audience of 300: "There is a risk that as early as tomorrow, I may have an egg on my face."

Why?

Because Burford Capital was scheduled to release its full-year 2025 results just 24 hours later. Annual results always include forward guidance – a key determinant for the share price.

How did it turn out?

The company's update was a mixed bag:

• Raising and deploying capital has grown significantly. New definitive commitments of USD 872m rose 39% year-on-year versus FY24, and the portfolio base grew 20%. In this respect, the business has made a strong start toward its objective of doubling in size by 2030.
• In the segment of the business where management has less direct influence – case progress and realisations – results were affected by longer case durations and fair value adjustments on pending cases.

The market wasn't enthused. Following the update, the stock was trading 6% down.

Still, I stand by my assessment:

• Burford Capital will increasingly attract attention for a new narrative, including its emergence as a leader in using advanced technology within the legal sector.
• Even today, the company is far more US-focused than UK-focused. I explained this in greater detail in my presentation. Over time, its US orientation should support higher valuation metrics. At present, you are buying an innovative, technology-driven US growth business at UK value prices.

You can download my 34-page presentation as a PDF here (no paywall, no registration required). In the deck, I mention two recent analyst reports that I believe are also MUST-reads for anyone interested in Burford Capital. Simply send me a message quoting "BUR reports", and I'll forward them to you.

Beyond Burford Capital, I would also encourage you to explore the other cases presented at the conference.

Access to 10 high-quality presentations

I am genuinely proud of the calibre of speakers assembled for this event.

Highlights included:

• How to grow your wealth from USD 1m to USD 100m – Maaiz Khan of 2x2 Capital on how he utilises litigation investing in his ambitious personal portfolio strategy.
• Panthera Resources update – Managing Director Mark Bolton with a timely deep dive just days before a key procedural deadline ("one of his best presentations!", according to one participant).
• Manolete Partners investment case – James Emanuel of Rock & Turner on how litigation finance evolves into private-equity-style investing.
• Mining arbitration cases – Emma Beatty, global expert on mining law, on how arbitration disputes can create public market opportunities.
• Deploying AI for investing in litigation – Jonathan Shafter on an emerging theme at the intersection of law, data, and markets. His presentation directly reinforced the view that Burford Capital is at the forefront of leveraging technology to exploit inefficiencies in the legal sector.
• Venezuela hold-out bonds – Richard Dai and Kyle Wang from Patagonia Research with deep insights into this asymmetric, little-understood bond category.

Missed the event but want access?

All you need is a ticket – you can still purchase one now to gain full access to all materials once they are released.

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