How to invest in Venezuela’s giant gold mine

Following the political changes in Venezuela, investors are looking for an early way to gain exposure to the country's reopening.

Venezuela is home to one of the world's largest undeveloped gold deposits, with a substantial copper resource thrown in as a bonus.

Few realise that you can already buy into it, and at a rock-bottom valuation.

This Canadian-listed stock offers pioneer investors a rare opportunity to get in – before the broader market catches on.

Financial claims and old mining projects

The recent political changes in Venezuela need no further explanation.

Less well known is that the new administration has already passed updated mining legislation. In line with the Trump administration's push to re-engage economically with Venezuela, the country has adopted a modern mining framework designed to welcome foreign investors back into the sector. In particular, it appears geared towards attracting North American investors. All of this happened in record time!

Source: Bloomberg, 9 April 2026.

After a quarter of a century of actively repelling foreign investment, untapped treasures may await.

One of the obvious targets for renewed mining investment is the Siembra Minera gold-copper deposit, one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the world. It hosts an estimated 52m ounces of gold and 5bn pounds of copper. Once mining gets started, it could produce 850,000 ounces of gold and 74m pounds of copper annually over an expected mine life of around 40 years.

To be clear, this is not a grassroots exploration project but a deposit that has already seen a significant amount of work carried out.

It is located in a region with a long history of gold discoveries stretching back more than a century. Between 1991 and 2001, Placer Dome – then one of Canada's largest gold mining companies – carried out extensive work in the area. Ultimately, deteriorating political conditions forced Placer Dome to abandon the project. By 2018, a new owner had completed a technical report meeting the requirements of an NI 43-101 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA). This is the level of evidence and documentation needed to get serious investors and operators to the table.

Source: Gold Reserve Limited.

However, given the subsequent political developments, the planned feasibility study was never completed.

For the more technical readers, "the 2018 NI 43-101 Technical Report defined a large-scale gold-copper system. Measured and Indicated (M&I) Resources total 1,184 MMt grading 0.70 g/t gold and 0.10% copper, containing 26.8 MMoz of gold and 2.7 BBlbs of copper. An additional Inferred Mineral Resource totals ~1.30 BBt grading 0.61 g/t Au and 0.08% Cu, containing ~25.4 MMoz gold and ~1.0 MMt copper, highlighting the significant scale of the deposit. The resource includes a modest oxide saprolite zone, a larger sulfide saprolite zone with the bulk of the resource as sulfides in fresh rock. The resource model is based on an extensive drill database combining historical drilling from both Brisas and Cristinas."

This is an excerpt from a recent research report about the company that provides access to the project, and whose stock is currently still trading at a surprisingly large discount.

Introducing Gold Reserve (again)

Long-term readers will recognise the name.

Gold Reserve Limited (ISIN BMG4R86G1074, CA:GRZ, US OTC:GDRZF) is a former Canadian firm that relocated to Bermuda a few years ago.

Undervalued-Shares.com Lifetime Members received an extensive research report on Gold Reserve in March 2023. The report framed the stock primarily as a way to gain exposure to compensation claims against Venezuela. At the time, the stock was trading at USD 1.06 / CAD 1.49, and half of that value was covered by the company's cash reserves.

The stock has since risen to its current level of USD 5 / CAD 6.50. Yet despite returning more than 300%, the stock may actually be cheaper today than when I first wrote about it.

Gold Reserve Limited.

What is the basis for such a bold statement?

Quite simply, following the political changes in Venezuela, the assets owned by the company need to be viewed in an entirely different light.

Gold Reserve owns a financial claim against Venezuela, which currently totals USD 1.2bn, with further interest accumulating annually. The validity of the claim is not the issue; collection is. This claim was what first drew me to the stock.

What has changed is that investors can now begin to assign value to Gold Reserve's 45% stake in the Siembra Minera project. Gold Reserve had been developing this massive gold and copper deposit alongside the former Venezuelan government. Under the previous legislation, the government was required to retain a majority ownership position in such projects.

The country's change in leadership has led to two important developments:

• Gold Reserve can engage the Venezuelan government to restart the project, and to do so under the new mining framework. The revised legislation should make financing the project materially easier.
• There is a possibility for Gold Reserve to increase its stake in the project from 45% to 100%. Under the new legislation, the government is no longer required to be the majority owner. As the existing partner, Gold Reserve will be given preference in acquiring the remaining 55%.

Suddenly, what had become a forgotten holding company has re-emerged as one of the few publicly listed vehicles offering direct exposure to Venezuela's reopening. It has also become more likely that the outstanding financial claim will ultimately be resolved. Gold Reserve could, for example, negotiate a framework in which an increased ownership stake in Siembra Minera and future royalty arrangements are offset against the financial claim. Both parties would win.

But why might Gold Reserve be cheaper today despite the share price having risen several-fold?

Putting a current value to it

Last month, Cantor Fitzgerald published a 22-page research report about the stock.

In their view, even under the current early-stage circumstances, the stock should already be trading at CAD 13 – more than twice its current level.

Their valuation model is based on the following assumptions.

For the financial claim, they assume a current value of 40% of the amount claimed. This is broadly in line with where defaulted Venezuelan bonds are trading today.

For the stake in the Siembra Minera gold deposit, they assume a gold price of USD 4,000/ounce (near the current price) and a copper price of USD 4.50/lb (well below the current ≈USD 6/lb). Applying various assumptions regarding the capital expenditure required to bring the mine into production, they arrive at a value of USD 10.1bn for the project. Gold Reserve's 45% stake would therefore be worth USD 4.6bn. To this figure, they then "apply a further discount multiple of 0.2x to capture development risk which is high given the large scope and scale of the project, stage of development, and ongoing finance risk, which is in-line with other large development projects, for a risk-adjusted value for GRZ's 45% interest in Siembra Minera of $911 MM."

Added to this are Gold Reserve's cash reserves of USD 150m, less the company's expected annual expenses for legal fees and general upkeep.

Combining these components leads Cantor Fitzgerald to a valuation of CAD 13 per share, or USD 9.30. That is more than twice where the stock is currently trading. In effect, investors are paying a distressed-debt valuation for the financial claim while receiving the Siembra Minera project for next to nothing.

Source: Cantor Fitzgerald, 5 May 2026.

The report further concludes:

"Viewed on its Siembra Minera interest only, on P/NAV basis, GRZ trades at a P/NAV of ~0.1x, well below its peer group of large-scale gold/gold-copper projects. We would expect this multiple to expand as the GRZ firms up its agreements with Venezuela, tables development plans, gets boots back on the ground at Siembra Minera, and eventually delivers an updated economic study."

Source: Cantor Fitzgerald, 5 May 2026.

Much still needs to happen before Siembra Minera can be developed. Nevertheless, Cantor Fitzgerald's sensitivity analysis produces target prices as high as CAD 51 per share.

These are order-of-magnitude estimates, and a great deal would need to go right for the stock to reach such levels. Still, the potential is there, and the overall direction of travel has become much clearer following the change in leadership.

Gold Reserve has a lot more upside, provided Venezuela continues on its current trajectory and the company succeeds in renegotiating the framework for developing Siembra Minera.

Inefficient markets

Looking back, it is remarkable that this opportunity was available at the prices prevailing when I first highlighted it to Undervalued-Shares.com Lifetime Members.

Markets sometimes do get it wrong. Occasionally, they misprice assets in spectacular fashion. Treasures do hide in forgotten corners of the stock market.

In fact, I have just informed my Lifetime Members about a somewhat comparable "hidden treasure" involving copper, nickel, and platinum group metals. The company spent years quietly assembling a vast land package before attracting the backing of a multi-generational Canadian mining dynasty. It's a fascinating under-the-radar opportunity – and one with potentially enormous upside. An Undervalued-Shares.com exclusive!

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